Recently, there has been talk in the financial markets about the "inevitable rate cut in September," with the probability of a rate cut being hyped up to over 90%. However, a careful analysis of the current economic situation suggests that this expectation may be overly optimistic.

Historical experience shows that the market's predictions about the Federal Reserve's policies often contain misjudgments. In June 2023 and January 2024, investors made two incorrect bets on interest rate cuts, ultimately being proven wrong by the Federal Reserve's decisions. The current situation is likely to repeat this scenario.

It is worth noting that some major financial institutions have begun to be cautious. Wall Street giants like Barclays and Goldman Sachs are warning investors that the probability of interest rate cuts may be overestimated. Meanwhile, retail investors are still actively buying U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies, with weekly inflows reaching as high as $21 billion. This extreme market divergence often signals risk, and small investors may ultimately bear the losses.

From an economic data perspective, inflationary pressures remain. Although the overall inflation rate in July was 2.7%, which seems low, the core inflation rate (excluding energy and food) reached 3.1%. Even more concerning is that service prices rose significantly by 0.55% month-on-month, which is exactly the "sticky inflation" metric that the Federal Reserve is most concerned about. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has clearly stated that he will not easily cut interest rates until the inflation rate falls back to the 2% target.

In addition, the impact of trade policies has not yet fully materialized. The tariff costs imposed on Chinese electric vehicles and semiconductors have not fully passed on to consumer prices. Some analysts warn that commodity prices may suddenly rise in the coming months. For example, Nike has announced a price increase of $5-10 on some shoe models.

Considering these factors, the possibility of a rate cut in September seems quite slim. If the Federal Reserve cuts rates at this time, coinciding with price increases caused by tariffs, it may further exacerbate inflationary pressures.

Investors should comprehensively consider these economic indicators and potential risks when making decisions, avoiding blind adherence to market sentiment.