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Recent analysis by professionals indicates that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting met expectations. It is anticipated that the Federal Reserve will implement three consecutive interest rate cuts within the year, each by 25 basis points.
This prediction will have a profound impact on the global financial markets. The US stock market may refocus on the "rate cut trade" theme, and the "catch-up" logic may dominate the subsequent trends. Experts believe that a situation similar to that seen in the rate cut trade of July 2024 may occur again, leading to significant increases in the rate-sensitive Russell 2000 index, S&P 500 real estate sector, and Nasdaq biotechnology sector.
However, there is still a certain gap between the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts this year and expert opinions. It is expected that U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index still have room to decline.
In terms of non-US dollar denominated assets, Powell's dovish remarks and the weakening of the dollar are expected to boost global stock market risk appetite. It is worth noting that the expectations of interest rate cuts provide favorable support for gold prices, but investors should also be wary of potential risks arising from breakthrough developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation.
Overall, the global financial markets are facing a new round of transformation, and investors need to closely monitor the direction of the Federal Reserve's policies and their impact on various assets in order to formulate reasonable investment strategies.