The Fed's monetary policy has always been the focus of market attention, especially the discussions about whether there will be a rate cut in September, which have sparked widespread debate. By analyzing current economic indicators, we can better understand the Fed's decision-making logic.

Firstly, the U.S. job market is performing strongly, with the unemployment rate remaining low at 4.2%, indicating that the labor market is still robust, and there is no urgent need to stimulate employment through interest rate cuts.

Secondly, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) remains at 3.1%, above the Fed's long-term target of 2%. In this context, cutting interest rates may exacerbate inflationary pressures, especially considering the potential impact of trade tariffs, which could further drive up price levels.

In addition, the current stock market valuations are relatively high, and some analysts believe there is a risk of a bubble. Against this backdrop, interest rate cuts could further drive up asset prices and increase financial instability.

However, it cannot be ignored that the United States is facing a debt burden of $35 trillion. Lowering interest rates can indeed alleviate the interest burden, but it is not the only way to solve the problem. The government has already taken some measures, such as adjusting tariff policies, to address the debt issue.

Nevertheless, the market remains highly focused on the future direction of monetary policy. Some observers speculate that if there is no interest rate cut in September, it could lead to a pullback in the stock and cryptocurrency markets. After the market adjustment, there may be signals of interest rate cuts released in October, and this policy pace could affect the performance of various assets.

Overall, the Fed's decisions will depend on a comprehensive assessment of multiple economic indicators, including employment, inflation, financial stability, and overall economic growth. Market participants should closely follow the changes in these indicators as well as the statements of Fed officials to better anticipate the direction of policy.