Stablecoins may welcome new development opportunities

Recently, a well-known research institution released a research report on the digital dollar. The report pointed out that 2025 could become an important turning point for the application of blockchain in the financial and public sectors, a trend primarily driven by regulatory changes.

Research institutions predict that by 2030, the total circulating supply of stablecoins could grow to $1.6 trillion under the basic scenario, reach $3.7 trillion in an optimistic scenario, and be around $500 billion in a pessimistic scenario. It is expected that the supply of stablecoins will still be predominantly denominated in US dollars, accounting for about 90%. Non-U.S. countries may be more inclined to promote the development of their own central bank digital currencies.

The report suggests that the regulatory framework in the United States for stablecoins may drive an increase in net demand for US Treasury bonds. By 2030, stablecoin issuers are expected to become one of the major holders of US Treasury bonds.

Stablecoins pose certain challenges to the traditional banking ecosystem and may replace some deposit services. However, they also bring new service opportunities for banks and financial institutions.

The Operating Mechanism of Stablecoins

A stablecoin is a type of cryptocurrency that maintains a stable value by being pegged to fiat currencies, commodities, or financial instruments. The main components include:

• Stablecoin issuer: responsible for issuing and maintaining the peg of the stablecoin price.
• Blockchain ledger: records transactions, provides transparency and security
• Reserves and Collateral: Ensure that each token can be redeemed at its pegged value.
• Digital wallet providers: provide users with storage and trading interfaces

Fiat-backed stablecoins maintain their peg by ensuring that each token is redeemable for an equivalent amount of fiat currency.

Stablecoin Market Status

As of April 2025, the total circulating supply of stablecoins has exceeded $230 billion, a year-on-year increase of 54%. Over 90% of the market share is concentrated in the top two stablecoins, with USDT in the lead and USDC in second place.

In the first quarter of 2025, the monthly trading volume of stablecoins is between 650 billion to 700 billion USD, approximately twice the levels seen from the second half of 2021 to the first half of 2024. Supporting the cryptocurrency ecosystem is the main application scenario for stablecoins.

Industry insiders expect that more participants will enter the market in the future, especially banks and traditional institutions (. USD-backed stablecoins will continue to dominate.

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Factors Driving the Adoption of Stablecoins

Experts believe that the main factors driving the adoption of stablecoins in the United States and globally include:

1. Practical Advantages: Fast speed, low cost, available around the clock

2. Macroeconomic Demand: Hedge Against Inflation, Enhance Financial Inclusion

3. Support and integration with existing banks and payment providers

4. Regulatory Clarity: Enabling broader adoption of stablecoins by banks and the financial services industry.

5. Improvement of user experience: Integration with existing payment methods

6. Innovation and Efficiency: Enhancing Traditional Bank Deposit Functions

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Stablecoin Market Size Forecast

Research institutions expect that by 2030, the stablecoin market size will be in the following three scenarios:

• Base case: $1.6 trillion
• Optimistic scenario: $3.7 trillion
• Pessimistic scenario: 0.5 trillion USD

The prediction takes into account the following factors:

• Some dollars are shifting from cash to stablecoins
• Families and businesses are reallocating some dollar short-term liquidity to stablecoins.
• Growth of the public cryptocurrency market

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Application Scenarios of Stablecoins

Experts predict that the main application scenarios for stablecoins in the future include:

1. Cryptocurrency trading: may account for around 50% of stablecoin usage.

2. Business-to-Business Payments: Could account for 20-25%

3. Consumer remittances: may account for 10-20%

4. Institutional trading and capital markets: possibly accounting for 10-15%

5. Interbank liquidity and fund management: may be less than 10%

Stablecoins and Central Bank Digital Currencies

The stablecoin market may show a development trend similar to the banking card industry, with new participants emerging. At the same time, many countries may focus on developing their own central bank digital currencies as a tool for national strategic autonomy.

Surveys show that 75% of central banks still plan to issue central bank digital currencies. The proportion of central banks expected to issue digital currencies is projected to increase from 26% in 2023 to 34% in 2024.

Impact of Stablecoins on Banks

Stablecoins bring new business opportunities to banks, such as directly issuing stablecoins, providing payment solutions, and building structured products. However, they may also impact banks' deposit and lending businesses, which could have a certain effect on economic growth.

Overall, the development of stablecoins will bring opportunities and challenges to the financial system, requiring regulators, financial institutions, and market participants to respond together.

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