The rapid development of generative AI holds immense economic potential.

McKinsey's latest artificial intelligence report points out that the development speed of generative AI far exceeds expectations, and its impact on the economy and society will be profound. The report suggests that AI may reach human-level capabilities sooner than anticipated, with a median prediction before 2030.

Compared to the predictions made in 2017, the new report is more optimistic about the prospects of AI development. Currently, AI has deeply penetrated various aspects of life, with generative AI products like ChatGPT, Copilot, and Stable Diffusion rapidly changing the way people work and live. These AI tools are highly accessible and can be used by everyone.

The report focuses on the rapid development of AI in a short period. Taking GPT-4 as an example, its various performances have significantly improved compared to GPT-3.5. A certain AI assistant can process about 100,000 tokens in one minute, which is equivalent to the length of a novel, with performance improved by about 10 times compared to March of this year.

McKinsey believes that our understanding of generative AI capabilities is still at a preliminary stage. This report aims to analyze the future potential of generative AI in greater depth.

From an economic perspective, if widely applied across various industries, generative AI could create an economic benefit of $2.6-4.4 trillion annually. This represents a 15%-40% increase over the 2017 forecast of $11-17.7 trillion.

The report analyzes the potential impact of generative AI on approximately 850 occupations and simulates scenarios of AI performing over 2,100 job tasks in the global economy. The results show that generative AI could generate total economic benefits of up to $6.1-7.9 trillion annually.

From a business functional perspective, customer operations, marketing and sales, software engineering, and R&D account for about 75% of the total value of generative AI use cases. Generative AI can also bring value to the entire company by improving enterprise knowledge management systems.

From an industry perspective, the impact of generative AI varies across different sectors. For example, the retail industry can gain about $310 billion in additional value through improved marketing and customer service, while the high-tech sector primarily benefits from AI enhancing software development efficiency.

The report predicts that based on current performance, generative AI will reach human levels of capability faster than previously expected. For example, the time for AI to achieve human-level natural language understanding has been advanced from the previously estimated 2027 to 2023.

Experts estimate that the overall automation share has increased from about 50% to 60-70% at the current stage. Generative AI has the greatest impact on knowledge work, especially in activities such as decision-making and collaboration, which previously had a lower potential for automation.

The report suggests that at least 25%-33% of jobs will change in the next decade. Business leaders need to consider how to leverage AI to create value and manage risks, while government policymakers should focus on issues such as workforce planning. For everyone, finding a balance between the conveniences and impacts brought by AI also requires deep reflection.

Overall, this report provides a comprehensive analysis of the significant impact of the generative AI boom on the socio-economy, offering valuable references for various sectors to respond to the AI wave.