Is the ETH August curse facing a challenge? Institutions are significantly increasing their holdings, on-chain activity is surging, and Ethereum may reach a new high | ETH Price Prediction

Ethereum (ETH) has rebounded nearly 8% this week, recovering more than 80% of last week's decline. Despite entering August, which historically shows poor performance, institutional holdings surged by 127.7% (enterprise-level ETH holdings), and the on-chain daily trading volume reached a historical high of 1.74 million transactions (ETH on-chain activity). Coupled with the technical aspect completing leverage cleansing (1 billion USD in open contracts liquidated), multiple indicators suggest ETH may break seasonal patterns. Currently, ETH is only 22% away from its historical high. After a big pump of 48% in July, can it continue the upward momentum in August to reach new highs?

Technical Analysis: Strong Rebound After Violent Washout, Structure is Solid

Ethereum (ETH)'s technicals show strength. This week, it rebounded nearly 8%, and after reaching a local high of $3941, it has recovered over 80% of last week's pullback.

From the market structure perspective, the recent 10% fall triggered the liquidation of $10 billion worth of open contracts and resulted in over $1 billion in realized profits exiting the market. This is a classic washout: leverage has been cleared, weak hands have exited, and prices have returned to the range.

Seasonal Patterns: The August Curse Faces a Strong Counterattack

Ethereum is currently entering a historically weak August period. In the past ten years, 60% of Augusts closed with a bearish candle. However, the trend for 2025 is breaking this structural trend.

Usually a down month in July (historically a red month), this year it has made a strong rebound, while after a strong start in the first quarter, it surprisingly dropped to a multi-year low of 1440 dollars. This price trend highlights the decoupling of Ethereum from its traditional seasonal cycle this year.

Institutional Power: Enterprise-Level Holdings Surge, Confirming Trend Change

Institutional holdings reinforce this viewpoint. The amount of Ethereum held by companies surged approximately 127.7% in July, reaching over 2.7 million ETH, accounting for nearly half of all ETH held by ETFs, with 24 new institutions entering the market (institutional ETH allocation).

(Source: The Block)

More importantly, these inflows drove a 50% rebound, making Ethereum a top large-cap performer and July a record month for institutional treasuries accumulating ETH (corporate ETH Holdings growth).

In short, the breakout of ETH in July is a verified structural change, not a coincidence.

On-chain Activity: Volume Breaks Record, Ecosystem Thrives

Above the potential August breakout for Ethereum is a surge in its on-chain throughput.

The daily trading volume of ETH (7-day moving average) reached a historical high of 1.74 million transactions on August 5, surpassing even the peak of the 2021 bull market.

In fact, July also set a record for the highest monthly trading volume ever with 46.67 million transactions (on-chain activity of ETH), and the number of active addresses soared to 683,520, reflecting strong DeFi rotation and the growth of institutional deployments on-chain (recovery of DeFi activity).

Key Resistance and Outlook: Is a New All-Time High in Sight?

In summary, the price trend of Ethereum, on-chain activity (volume hitting record levels), and institutional holdings (corporate ETH holdings surging) are creating a resonance, collectively indicating a shift in momentum. August, often regarded as the "blood month," may be having its script rewritten.

So, is a new all-time high just around the corner? Ether is currently just 22% away from its peak. In July, it rebounded strongly by 48% from a fully adjusted low.

With the surge in on-chain activity (ETH on-chain activity), August may be ready to continue the breakout and enter the price discovery phase.

Conclusion: Multiple positive factors resonate, August may usher in a change

Despite the psychological pressure from historical seasonal patterns, the current technical resilience shown by Ethereum (quick recovery after a violent washout), unprecedented institutional accumulation (enterprise-level ETH holdings surge), and record-breaking on-chain activity (ETH network utilization) form a strong bullish synergy. These factors are collectively challenging the "August Curse" and laying a solid foundation for ETH to hit new highs or even embark on a new price discovery journey (ETH price prediction). The market needs to closely monitor whether August can truly break the historical shackles.